Non-agricultural driving arrives in February: the weather bonus ends, will new jobs be surprised? -Eye Care-Business News-

At 21:30 pm on Friday, March 8, Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Labor will announce the February 2019 non-agricultural employment report. This data will reflect the current situation of the US labor market and is also an important reference for the Fed to measure inflation. Overall, the cold weather in February is expected to put pressure on weather-sensitive industries, coupled with the adverse impact of the US government shutdown and the tightening of financial markets at the end of last year will be partially reflected in February, so it is relative to 1. As far as the monthly non-agricultural employment population increased by 304,000, the market is not optimistic about the forecast of the US non-agricultural employment population growth in February. In the context of the decelerating economic data in the United States, the market is concerned about whether non-agricultural employment slowdown in February has become one of the links. If this non-agricultural report is strong, it will hopefully alleviate market concerns about the prospects of the US economy. In addition, this February non-agricultural report tonight still needs to focus on salary data, that is, whether wage growth will trigger rising inflation concerns, because this may change the market's view of the Fed's interest rate hike path. The market predicts that wage growth will rise moderately, or it will turn into inflationary pressure, which will push forward interest rate hike expectations. New employment is expected to fall sharply, but wage growth is expected to perform well. The following are the main market forecasts: non-agricultural employment will increase by 180,000, with the previous value of 304,000; the unemployment rate will drop slightly to 3.9%, with the previous value of 4.0% (FOMC predicts unemployment The rate will stabilize at 3.5% by the end of 2019, and the long-term unemployment rate will reach 4.4%); average hourly wages increase by 3.3% year-on-year, and the previous value is 3.2%; average hourly wages increase by 0.3% month-on-month, and the previous value is 0.1%; average weekly work The duration remains unchanged at the previous value of 34.5 hours; the previous value of the U6 unemployment rate was 8.1%, and the previous value of the labor participation rate was 63.2%. In terms of employment data, due to mild weather boosting recruitment in the construction and leisure and hotel industries, the total number of non-agricultural jobs in the first two months (December and January) increased by 526,000. This time, analysts expect the median value of non-agricultural jobs to increase by 180,000 in February, which will be the smallest increase since September last year. The analysis believes that, on the one hand, the colder temperature in February may hit the employment of those weather-sensitive industries. On the other hand, the tightening of financial markets last year may also be reflected in the labor market. The stock market fell in late 2018 and the U.S. The jump in Treasury bond yields has frozen the company's funding sources, which may curb recruitment in February. At the same time, given the relatively low response rate of the survey sample in January, the employment data in January may also be revised down. The forward-looking indicators of non-agricultural employment are mixed. The US February ADP increase of 183,000 announced on Wednesday was slightly less than expected, but the data in January was revised up sharply; the number of initial jobless claims in February was higher, and the number of renewals also increased, indicating that employment growth was slowing; February ISM manufacturing The ISM manufacturing employment index was 52.30, which was at its lowest level in more than two years. The GDP growth rate of 2.9% in 2018 was the highest in three years. However, in December, housing starts, retail sales, corporate spending, and exports all declined, indicating that economic growth is gradually declining. Momentum, showing a slowing trend. U.S. economic data has generally slowed down, and the market is also seeking more evidence on whether the U.S. economy has slowed down or is still strong. Non-agricultural employment in February is an important part of it. In terms of the unemployment rate, analysis believes that the increase in the unemployment rate in January was caused by the temporary unemployment of some federal government employees during the government shutdown. It will improve in February, with a median expected value of 3.9%. The 35-day partial government shutdown ended on January 25. This was the longest government shutdown in the history of the United States. Hourly wage growth is still a key indicator of inflation, which will affect the prospect of interest rate hikes. The mainstream market expects that wage growth will rise moderately, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, slightly higher than the previous value of 3.2%. According to the Fed’s Beige Book, many regions report tight labor markets and obvious shortages of workers, which may mean that wage growth will accelerate in February. The Fed's January policy statement pointed out that inflationary pressures were moderate. Fed officials have recently stated that although they are close to reaching the targets of full employment and 2% inflation, wage growth has not shown signs of transforming into rising prices. Institutional views Morgan Stanley's expectations for this non-agricultural report are more pessimistic than the market median. Ellen Zentner, chief economist of the bank in the United States, believes that in the context of the government shutdown, the U.S. non-agricultural employment population still unexpectedly increased by 304,000 in January. Therefore, it is expected that the adverse effects of the U.S. government shutdown will be partially reflected in February. Monthly non-agricultural employment is expected to be 141,000. Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius also predicts that the non-agricultural report in February will show a sharp drop in the labor market. Non-agricultural employment is expected to increase by 150,000, which is 30,000 lower than the market consensus and the lowest increase in 5 months. Hatzius explained that the trend of employment growth may have slowed from an average increase of 232,000 in the past six months. In addition, during the survey in February, snowstorms in the United States dragged down employment growth, reducing at least 40,000 people. However, in terms of salary growth, Goldman Sachs is more optimistic than market expectations, believing that hourly revenue will increase by 0.4% year-on-year, because industries that were cold in January may rebound this month. Lewis Alexander, chief economist at Nomura Securities, pointed out that the warmer than usual climate in December last year and January of this year may give a boost to 90,000 jobs. The return of seasonal weather in February may give rise to the weather. Sensitive industries have brought pressure, especially the construction and leisure and hotel industries; even so, a series of indicators in February, including the decline in the number of initial applicants and healthy business employment indicators, showed that the momentum of the US job market remained unchanged. However, Alexander also pointed out that there may be some weakness in the manufacturing industry. Employment growth in this industry has slowed since October last year. Taking into account the low oil prices and the uncertainty of the US trade policy, the manufacturing industry is expected to remain weak in the near future.